ติดค้างเอาไว้ตั้งแต่ Blog 12 (Trend Following) ที่ว่าผมจะคัดเอา quote จากหนังสือเล่มนี้มาลง (แล้วผมก็ลืม 555+)
สำหรับเล่มนี้ ก็อ่านง่ายดีครับ เนื้อหาประมาณว่าให้แนวคิดและมุมมองภาพกว้าง จากนักลงทุนประเภท Trend Following ประมาณ 12 – 13 คน ครับ ซึ่งก็ทำให้ได้มุมมองดีๆหลายอย่างพอสมควรเลยทีเดียว
Trend following is identifying a trend and riding it.
“If the chart is moving. From the bottom left to the top right, then I like it.” : Dennis Gartman
Markets are highly inefficient because participants are inefficient.
Trend following ins’t just drawing a line on a chart and hoping it continues from the bottom left to the top right. It is about studying the history of market movements, creating a game plan, having rules, learning how to apply those rules, understanding money management, and utilizing a risk management approach.
Trend following is about thinking outside the box.
Failure to plan is planning for failure
“Whereas you don’t need to be a trend follower to succeed in the investment world, you certainly need to understand the importance of risk management, the establishment of rules, and planning in advance. If not, you are destined to fail.”
One major rule is accepting when you are wrong in the market and getting out. You need to be willing to lose a small amount of money if the trend does not go your way. The key to keeping that loss as small as possible is admitting defeat. This is how you preserve capital.
Trend following can be simple, but sticking with it is the hard part.
Successful fundamental traders often have great success because they’ve been in the right place at the right time.
The key is to make sure you never miss a potential big trend.
Wall Street doesn’t prepare you to understand when to sell. Wall Street is always thinking of new ways to get you to buy or hold its new products. If you’re a car salesman, it’s difficult to make money if you tell everyone who walk onto the lot that they shouldn’t buy.
People always want the big moneymaking strategy, but it takes practice to win. Most people are not willing to sit down, get a good teacher, and practice. No one is going to give it to you. You have to work and do something for it.
Protecting your downside is critical to trend following success.
When the next opportunity or chance does come around again you have to be willing to get in the game and play again – without thinking about your negative experience.
There is always more to learn.
The idea is that you want to buy strength, and sell weakness.
Your winning trades will be less frequent, but larger on average.
Keep It Simple and Start Small
If you have money management, you can let volatility go because you know it doesn’t have any correlation with risk of ruin. You can use volatility to your advantage.
The great trend followers do not quit. They practice. They learn. They stick with it.
Think like a poker player and play the odds.
You don’t swing at every pitch. You can wait for your perfect pitch.
Ask yourself simple question “Is the risk worth the reward?” and “How much money are you willing to lose on a trade?”.
Larry Hite has two basic rules about trading and life ;
– 1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win.
– 2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.
Winner Always Adjust
Most retail investors blow up, or have a short lived trading career because they don’t have the discipline to stick with their system. They are always looking for the quick buck.
You can’t know everything.
Anything successful in life is a process of trial and error.
“It really is simple. You hold your winner, have discipline and cut your losers. You take what the market gives and you’ll be successful in this business.”
ในบทสุดท้าย ผู้เขียนปิดท้ายด้วยเนื้อเพลง Whipsaw Song ซึ่ง Ed Seykota แต่งเอาไว้ให้ Trader ทุกคน
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Blog 29 : Quote จาก ‘The Little Book of Trading – Trend Following Strategy for Big Winnings’
17 ตุลาคม 2012